Comparing stream-specific to generalized temperature models to guide coldwater salmonid management in a changing climate

Author(s):

Andrew K. Carlson, William W. Taylor, Kelsey M. Hartikainen, Dana M. Infante, T. Douglas Beard, Jr., Abigail J. Lynch

Journal or Book Title: Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries

Volume/Issue: 27

Year Published: 2017

Abstract:

Global climate change is predicted to increase air and stream temperatures and alter thermal habitat suitability for growth and survival of coldwater fishes, including brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis), brown trout (Salmo trutta), and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). In a changing climate, accurate stream temperature modeling is increasingly important for sustainable salmonid management throughout the world. However, finite resource availability (e.g. funding, personnel) drives a tradeoff between thermal model accuracy and efficiency (i.e. cost-effective applicability at management-relevant spatial extents). Using different projected climate change scenarios, we compared the accuracy and efficiency of stream-specific and generalized (i.e. region-specific) temperature models for coldwater salmonids within and outside Michigan, USA, a state with long-term stream temperature data and productive coldwater fisheries. Projected stream temperature warming between 2016 and 2056 ranged from 0.1 to 3.8°C in groundwater-dominated streams and 0.2 to 6.8°C in surface runoff-dominated systems in Michigan. Despite their generally lower accuracy in predicting exact stream temperatures, generalized models accurately projected salmonid thermal habitat suitability in 82% of groundwater-dominated streams, including those with brook charr (80% accuracy), brown trout (89% accuracy), and rainbow trout (75% accuracy). In contrast, generalized models predicted thermal habitat suitability in runoff-dominated streams with much lower accuracy (54%). These results suggest that, amidst climate change and constraints in resource availability, generalized models are appropriate for forecasting thermal conditions in groundwater-dominated streams within and outside Michigan and informing regional-level salmonid management strategies. We recommend fisheries professionals reserve resource-intensive stream-specific models for runoff-dominated systems containing high-priority fisheries resources (e.g. trophy individuals, endangered species) that will be directly impacted by projected stream warming.

DOI: 10.1007/s11160-017-9467-0

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